Identify and exploit Emergent Patterns
Interpreting our observations in complex and evolving situations is often a significant challenge. Especially because much of the critical cause and effect behavior in such situations is non-linear. The impact of a change is not proportional to time and/or effort. Sometimes, the impact may be limited for a considerable time and then, without warning, it may accelerate rapidly. Alternatively, a significant and growing initial impact may inexplicably stabilize or even decline. In such circumstances, learning based on simple historical observation of cause and effect is inadequate and misleading. In the example of delayed impact, learning based on historical cause and effect would incorrectly suggest in the early stages that the effort is ‘not working’ and that the design or plan should be abandoned or changed.
The question is: how can we tell the difference between a non-linear response, resulting in delayed impact, and a ‘failure’ response in which the cause will not achieve the desired impact irrespective of the time or effort? Similarly, if the preconditions exist for a non-linear response, it is possible to influence that response, either to promote it, if it is desirable, or to suppress it, if it is undesirable? In complex and emergent situations we need to have a sound appreciation of the types of non-linear patterns that may emerge and how to work with them.
Follow Us!